美国、以色列和哈马斯陷入危险的僵局
战斗已经减弱，但停火谈判却没有任何进展。
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开斋节标志着斋月的结束，通常是加沙地带一年中最欢乐的时光，家庭互赠礼物，为孩子们购买新衣。但今年的节日，始于4月9日，却无法带来庆祝的气氛。战斗虽有所减弱，使得几千名巴勒斯坦人得以返回南部城市汗尤尼斯——自一月以来战斗的焦点，他们在毁坏的家园废墟中搜寻残余物品。战争尚未结束，临时停火的谈判仍陷于僵局。
4月7日，以色列从汗尤尼斯撤出了地面部队，仅留下一个旅队驻守在加沙地带。剩余的部队部署在横贯中部、全长41公里（25英里）的走廊上，目的是阻止巴勒斯坦人从南部迁往北部，北部地区在战争初期已被疏散。
以色列地面部队稀少，难以推进战争的双重目标：击败哈马斯和解救仍被扣押在加沙的129名人质（其中许多人可能已死亡）。要做到前者，以色列将不得不进攻拉法，这是其尚未攻占的最后一座城市；后者则需要与哈马斯达成协议。两者都看似难以实现。
西方和阿拉伯谈判者曾希望在斋月开始前，然后是在开斋节前达成停火协议。这些期限一一过去，谈判仍在埃及和卡塔尔缓慢进行。本月早些时候，美国中央情报局局长比尔·伯恩斯飞往开罗，提交了美国的最新提议。该提议要求哈马斯释放40名以色列人质——主要是妇女、病人和老人——作为交换，以色列将释放900名巴勒斯坦囚犯。
谈判者对这一努力持乐观态度。卡塔尔外交部发言人马杰德·安萨里表示他“更加乐观”。一些外交官认为，从汗尤尼斯撤军可能作为增强信心的措施，促使哈马斯降低要求。然而，也有人认为这只是一厢情愿的想法。
目前，以色列和哈马斯之间仍存在较大的分歧，这些分歧已经困扰了数月的谈判。哈马斯在加沙的领导人亚希亚·西瓦尔仍然希望达成永久停火；而以色列只同意临时休战。哈马斯的特使还声称他们无法找到预定释放的40名在生的人质。这将要求他们释放士兵或年轻男性，而这些人本是他们希望用作筹码的，哈马斯要求释放更多的囚犯作为交换。
西瓦尔还希望以色列拆除沿其军事走廊的检查站，并允许流离失所的加沙居民在休战期间向北迁移。这可能允许哈马斯重新部署自己的力量，并重新控制北部。不出所料，以色列坚持检查站必须保留。它将允许妇女和儿童过境，但男性将面临严格限制。而且，撤出汗尤尼斯不仅不是一个诱因，反而可能产生相反的效果：由于战斗减少，西瓦尔可能感受到的压力减少，从而减少了达成协议的动力。
以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡似乎也满意于让谈判缓慢进行：即使是暂时的停火，对他的极右翼盟友来说也是不受欢迎的。他在4月8日的声明中警告说，对拉法的攻势迫在眉睫。“这将发生；有一个日期，”他说（尽管他拒绝提供具体日期）。
内塔尼亚胡已经承诺数月将征服拉法。2月8日他说，以色列军队将“很快进入拉法”。3月17日，他告诉内阁他已经批准了攻势的“作战计划”。经过数月的威胁，无论是以色列人还是哈马斯领导人都怀疑他的真诚。实际上，这次攻势还遥遥无期。对拉法的行动需要召集更多预备役军人，并制定计划疏散城市中的150万巴勒斯坦平民。以色列两者都未做到。据说国防部长约阿夫·加兰特与内塔尼亚胡意见不一，他告诉美国官员，攻势没有预定日期。
目前，战争陷入了僵局。一些以色列官员认为这本就是他们的计划。去年10月，地面进攻开始之前，将军们预测战斗将分阶段进行。首先是一阶段的激烈战斗，以色列大量部队进驻加沙地带，随后是更长时间的，由驻扎在加沙周边的部队执行的针对性突袭。四个月的汗尤尼斯战斗之后，他们现在表示，他们的部队已无大的目标可追求；让他们休息并集中精力防御伊朗支持的地区民兵威胁是明智的。
内塔尼亚胡也不介意这种僵局：战争拖得越久，他就越能避免提前举行选举。但这种泥潭意味着更多的人质可能会在囚禁中丧生，并且给了哈马斯更多时间重组。
撤军与向加沙大量增加人道主义援助的时机一致。以色列军方表示，4月7日有322辆卡车进入该地区，创下战争期间的单日纪录；随后几天的数字甚至更高。九个国家参与了一次联合空投，空投了食物、衣服和玩具，以迎接开斋节，这是迄今为止最大规模的此类行动。尽管如此，许多加沙居民表示他们并没有感觉到食物供应有太大改善。这部分原因是联合国和其他援助机构无法卸载和分发所有过境物资。
援助的增加与以色列的撤军关系不大，而更多是因为美国对4月1日以色列无人机空袭造成七名援助工作者死亡的事件感到愤怒。4月9日，美国西班牙语新闻巨头Univision播出了乔·拜登的一次采访，他在采访中称内塔尼亚胡对加沙的做法是“一个错误”。然而，尽管最激烈的战斗似乎已经结束，援助也在增加，但美国、以色列和哈马斯仍然陷入僵局——没有任何一方愿意改变现状。
America, Israel and Hamas are trapped in a dangerous impasse
The fighting has ebbed. But ceasefire talks are going nowhere
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Eid al-fitr, which marks the end of Ramadan, is normally a joyous time in Gaza, as families exchange gifts and buy new clothes for children. But the holiday, which began on April 9th, is no cause for celebration this year. Fighting has ebbed enough for a few thousand Palestinians to return to Khan Younis, the southern city that has been the focal point of combat since January, and scavenge through the remains of their ruined homes. The war is not over, though, and efforts to negotiate a temporary ceasefire are still at an impasse.
On April 7th Israel withdrew its ground troops from Khan Younis, leaving just one brigade deployed in Gaza. Those who remain are stationed along a corridor that cuts across the middle of the 41km (25-mile) enclave. They are meant to prevent Palestinians from leaving the south, now home to almost 90% of Gaza’s 2.2m people, and returning to the north, which was depopulated in the early weeks of the war.
With such a sparse ground presence, the army can do little to advance the war’s twin goals: the defeat of Hamas and the return of 129 hostages still held in Gaza (dozens of whom are thought to be dead). To do the former, Israel would have to press into Rafah, the last remaining city it has yet to assault; the latter would require a deal with Hamas. Neither seems likely.
Western and Arab negotiators had hoped to broker a ceasefire before the start of Ramadan, and then before Eid al-Fitr. Those deadlines came and went. Talks are still slogging along in Egypt and Qatar. Earlier this month Bill Burns, the cia director, flew to Cairo to present America’s latest proposal. It called for Hamas to release 40 Israeli hostages—mostly women, the sick and the old—in exchange for 900 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
Negotiators put an optimistic spin on the effort. Majed al-Ansari, a spokesman for Qatar’s foreign ministry, said he was “more optimistic”. A few diplomats suggested the withdrawal from Khan Younis could serve as a confidence-building measure to nudge Hamas into lowering its demands. Others call this wishful thinking.
There are still big gaps between what Israel and Hamas are willing to accept—the same ones that have bedevilled negotiations for months. Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, still wants a permanent ceasefire; Israel will only agree to a temporary lull. Envoys from Hamas have also claimed they cannot find 40 living hostages from the groups set to be released. That would require them to release soldiers or young men, whom it had hoped to hold as leverage, and for whom it wants a higher number of freed prisoners.
Mr Sinwar also wants Israel to dismantle the checkpoints along its military corridor and allow displaced Gazans to travel north during a truce. That could allow Hamas to redeploy its own forces, and reassert some control over the north. Israel, unsurprisingly, insists the checkpoints will stay. It would allow women and children to cross, but men would face strict limits. And far from serving as an inducement, the pullout from Khan Younis could have the opposite effect: with little fighting, Mr Sinwar may feel little pressure to deal.
Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, also seems content to let the talks meander: a ceasefire, even a temporary one, would be unpopular with his far-right allies. In a statement on April 8th he warned that the Rafah offensive was imminent. “This will happen; there is a date,” he said (while declining to provide said date).
Mr Netanyahu has been promising to conquer Rafah for months. On February 8th he said that Israeli troops would “soon go into Rafah”. On March 17th he told the cabinet he had approved “operational plans” for the offensive. After months of threats, it is doubtful that either Israelis or Hamas leaders believe him. In reality, the offensive remains far off. A move on Rafah requires calling up more reservists and preparing a plan to evacuate 1.5m Palestinian civilians living in the city. Israel has done neither. Yoav Gallant, the defence minister, is said to have contradicted Mr Netanyahu and told American officials that there is no scheduled date for the offensive.
That leaves the war effort deadlocked. Some Israeli officials argue that this was the plan all along. In October, before the ground offensive began, generals predicted it would take place in phases. There would be a stage of heavy fighting, with a large Israeli presence inside the strip, and then a longer period of targeted raids carried out by troops on Gaza’s periphery. After four months of fighting in Khan Younis, they now say, their troops no longer have big objectives left to pursue; it is sensible to let them rest, and to focus on defending against other threats from Iran-backed militias across the region.
Mr Netanyahu does not mind the stalemate either: the longer the war drags on, the longer he thinks he can avoid early elections. But a quagmire means that more hostages will probably die in captivity and gives Hamas more time to regroup.
The withdrawal coincided with a big increase in deliveries of humanitarian aid to Gaza. The Israeli army said that 322 lorries entered the territory on April 7th, then a record high during this war; even more came through in the following days. A group of nine countries took part in a joint air-drop of food, clothing and toys ahead of Eid al-Fitr, the largest such operation to date. Many Gazans say they have not seen much difference in the availability of food, though. That is partly because the un and other aid agencies have been unable to unload and distribute all the goods that crossed the border.
The influx of aid has less to do with the Israeli pullout than with American anger over an Israeli drone strike on April 1st that killed seven aid workers. On April 9th Univision, a Spanish news giant in America, broadcast an interview with Joe Biden in which he called Mr Netanyahu’s approach to Gaza “a mistake”. Yet while the most intense phase of fighting appears to be over, and aid is picking up, America, Israel and Hamas remain trapped in an impasse—with none willing to change course.
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/04/10/as-israels-army-bisects-gaza-a-dangerous-impasse-looms
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